Frost & Sullivan:全球国防开支将减少10%(英文)

2020-06-15 智邦网

编译 致远

据defense-aerospace2020年6月11日报道,弗罗斯特和沙利公司发布《后疫情时期国防工业增长机会分析》报告指出,疫情对全球国防支出将产生三大影响:逐步遏制、疫情加重和全球紧急情况。

在严峻形势下,全球国防开支短期内 (2020-2021年).将停留在目前水平。

全球出现紧急情况时,国防开支将减少,主要取决于全球和地区政治形势变化。

长期看,国防开支将至少减少10%。

尽管如此,通过重新设计国防战略和客户参与模式,防务市场或将增加收入。

在机器人和AI领域,将开发和升级军事医学、商业安全、遏制和后勤领域相关产品。

Global Spending on Defence Declines as Governments Allocate Funds to Reactivate the Economy
(Source: Frost & Sullivan; issued June 11, 2020)

LONDON — Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis, “Post-pandemic Growth Opportunity Analysis of the Defence Industry,” presents the impact of global spending on defence under three scenarios—gradual containment, severe pandemic, and global emergency.

As governments around the world allocate funds to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and reactivate the economy, under the severe pandemic scenario, defence spending will stagnate at current levels for the short term (2020-2021). In the global emergency scenario, defence spending will reduce, though this will mainly depend on global and regional political conditions.

But, in the long term, it will be cut by at least 10%, as witnessed in the past.

“The decline in GDP and the increase of budget deficits would have an impact on defence spending, but the effect would be lower than other industries,” said Alexander Clark, Aerospace & Defence Research Analyst at Frost & Sullivan. “Additionally, governments across the world will promote investments for national security and as potential investments for export revenue.”

Clark added: “With increasing geopolitical tensions, the regional defence spending ratio will remain unaffected as the underlying political factors continue to remain constant. Further, the United States, Asia and Europe, respectively, will remain the biggest consumers of defence products.”

Despite this, defence market participants are likely to increase revenue realisation from a services portfolio by redesigning their strategies and customer engagement models, including:

— Mergers and acquisitions: Identify businesses/SMEs whose acquisition/partnership would diversify and strengthen the existing portfolio.

— Vertical integration: Focus on offering aftermarket services such as simulator training, PBL contracts, spare parts or maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO).

— Robotics and artificial intelligence: Develop and upgrade products that serve military-medical, commercial-security, containment, and logistics purposes.

— Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defence (CBRN): Strategic acquisitions or diversification of product portfolio should include CBRN protective clothing and equipment.

For over five decades, Frost & Sullivan has become world-renowned for its role in helping investors, corporate leaders and governments navigate economic changes and identify disruptive technologies, Mega Trends, new business models and companies to action, resulting in a continuous flow of growth opportunities to drive future success.


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